Sports betting players have seen the offensive role of tight ends increase this season, and New England has embraced this philosophy with their young tight ends. Their star will be playing hurt, but his equally talented teammate will pick up the slack and become the first tight end to win the Super Bowl MVP.
The Favorites
It shouldn’t surprise any NFL betting player that New England’s Tom Brady (-110) is the favorite for the Super Bowl MVP, which he has won twice, while New York counterpart Eli Manning (+150) earned the award when the Giants upset the Patriots four years ago, although some would argue that defensive end Justin Tuck (rated with the field at +1250). Quarterbacks have won 24 of 45 Super Bowl MVPs that have been handed out, and if you pick one of them to win, you’re basically picking who you think is going to win as there has only been one player from a losing team to be selected, Dallas linebacker Chuck Howley back in the fifth edition of the big game.
New England receiver Deion Branch (+200) won the award in 2005, while tight end Rob Gronkowski (+500) is also one of the favorites as most of the conversation this week has surrounded his ailing ankle. Branch may have a better chance as receivers have won the Super Bowl MVP six times, and there has never been a tight end bestowed with the honor. But Gronkowski could be an exception to the rule given the season that he has had; it just all depends on his health, or rather, his threshold for pain.
The Second Tier:
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New York receivers Victor Cruz (+1000), Hakeem Nicks (+1400) and Mario Manningham (+1700) are all very close as Manning has faith in all three and will go to them at any time. Cruz is the big-play threat, but Nicks and Manningham are capable of huge games and this receiving corps is one of the keys for a New York victory. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw (+1400) is in the mix, and if the Giants are going to be successful, they have to get the run going so Manning can use the play-action pass. The running game has been solid over the last few weeks, which has been one of the keys to the Giants’ run to the Super Bowl.
New England receiver Wes Welker (+1400) and tight end Aaron Hernandez (+1500) are up there as well, and Hernandez is an intriguing pick because he could get more touches if Gronkowski isn’t at full strength. Also, for all the attention that Gronkowski receivers, Welker is still one of the top receivers in the league and he’ll have a major say in New England’s success as the Giants will pressure Brady and he’ll have to find someone quick; Welker is usually his first priority when he is being rushed.
The Longshots
New York defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul (+2000) is fighting an uphill battle as there have been only eight defensive players to be named Super Bowl MVP, and only two have been ends. But if anyone can do it, it’s Pierre-Paul, who has been the league’s best defensive player over the second half of the season. He is a disruptive force who opens up so much for his linemates because you have to double-team Pierre-Paul, or risk getting your quarterback hurt. Running back Brandon Jacobs (+3000) can wear down the New England defense with his bruising style, although you shouldn’t expect many long runs from Jacobs and that could hurt his chances.
On the New England side, look towards running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis (+2400) as the Patriots will need to run the ball effectively to slow down the New York pass rush. Much has been made this week about Green-Ellis’ sure hands; he has never fumbled in his NFL career, spanning 536 carries. Fellow back Danny Woodhead (+4000) could get a few short-yardage carries at the goal line and if he could score two touchdowns or more, he could be an excellent NFL betting pick. Defensive back Kyle Arrington (+4500) will get a lot of opportunities in coverage, and if he can run back a pick for a score, he could steal the award.
How It Will Play Out:
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We’re leaning towards Hernandez at +1500 as Gronkowski will be more of a decoy, and the Patriots have also been lining up Hernandez in the backfield, which will earn him a few more touches. If the Patriots are going to be the Giants, they have to move Hernandez around, and his versatility is going to pose a threat to the New York defense, whose front seven can be exposed. For a solid value pick, go with New England’s Aaron Hernadez as your Super Bowl MVPonline betting pick.
Super Bowl MVP Betting Pick: Aaron Hernandez
